Northwest European jet fuel crack spreads over Brent crude stood at $75.38 per barrel on 21 August, according to MacroMicro data drawn from Platts assessments, a level that remains well above the $57 per barrel average the International Air Transport Association (IATA) had modelled for 2026 as a whole.
The unusually wide refining margins, more than double the pre-conflict historical norm of around $20 to $30 per barrel, continues to squeeze low-cost carrier (LCC) margins even as headline crude prices have fallen.
The spread widened sharply after air strikes on Iran in late February disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz a route carrying around 25% of global crude oil flows, and refiners in the Gulf and Asia cut jet fuel exports.
IATA's fuel fact sheet warned that average crack spreads could rise above $57 a barrel for the year if disruption persisted but the August reading suggests that forecast was optimistic.
Wizz Air, historically the least-hedged of Europe's major LCCs, reported a €198.6 million loss after tax for the three months to 30 June, against a €39.3 million profit a year earlier, with management blaming roughly €100 million of the swing on higher fuel costs.
As of 29 July, the carrier had hedged 76% of its financial-year 2027 fuel requirement in a range of $749 to $837 per tonne, with 39% of the first half of financial year 2028 hedged at $776 to $864 per tonne, coverage levels that lock in prices still well above pre-crisis norms even as they provide near-term protection.
Other carriers with hedge cover expiring in the 2027 and 2028 fiscal years face exposure to a market that has yet to return to pre-conflict pricing, keeping fuel cost volatility a risk into next summer.
