Ryanair cut its full-year traffic guidance from 216 million to 214 million passengers on September 2.
The airline is reducing planned winter capacity to limit its exposure to unhedged jet fuel trading near $140 a barrel, against a hedged position of 80% of financial year 2027 fuel requirements locked in at around $67 a barrel.
The reduction is concentrated in the November-to-March period, historically the least profitable part of Ryanair's schedule.
The carrier said winter passenger numbers would now be broadly flat year on year, against an earlier forecast of 2% second-half growth issued in July.
Ryanair carried 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6% year on year, with load factor steady at 96%.
More than 120,500 flights operated during the month, though over 400 were cancelled following eruptions at Sicily's Mount Etna.
Rolling 12-month traffic rose 5% to 214.4 million, with load factor unchanged at 94%.
Ryanair estimates the winter capacity pullback will narrow its projected seasonal losses by €70 million to €100 million.
Northwest European jet fuel prices averaged almost $1,300 a tonne in August, roughly 80% higher year on year, according to Argus assessments.
Ryanair said short-haul European airfares would need to rise materially if elevated oil prices persist into summer 2027.
It added that less-hedged competitors could be forced to cut capacity further or fail to survive the coming winter season, a warning that follows the shutdown of Spirit Airlines in the US earlier this year after a fuel-driven liquidity collapse.
For LCC and regional operators entering winter scheduling with lower hedge cover than Ryanair's 80%, the guidance cut signals that capacity discipline, not fare competition, is likely to define the sector's approach to the 2026-27 winter season.
Ryanair still expects to report a profit for financial year 2027, though it declined to provide a figure; it made more than €2 billion in the 2026 financial year.
